‘Sonic the Hedgehog 3’ Eyes $70M Opening, ‘Mufasa’ $35M

SATURDAY AM: Who knew that hedgehogs were predatory creatures that could spring out of the ground and take down the king of the jungle in full? Paramount’s $122M production Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is the alpha male gorilla heading into the Christmas frame with $70.5M opening, well ahead of Disney’s $200M prequel Mufasa which is nothing to sing “Hakuna matata” about with a $36M-$38M estimated opening. Mufasa gets an A CinemaScore to Mufasa‘s A-. We’re still waiting for Disney’s number.

Today of course will determine if Sonic 3 becomes the franchise opening, beating its predecessor’s $72.1M.

Even with a Christmas multiple that can yield as high as a 7x multiple, this is a bad showing for Disney in the pre-Christmas frame, galaxies far far away from the mega Avatar 2 $134M to near Star Wars $250M openings in this corridor — and it’s a prequel to Jon Favreau’s (is it live action? Gosh, if that’s not a real lion) animated 2019 Lion King which brought audiences in like gazelles to the tune of a $191.7M opening. At a $36M-$38M level on Mufasa especially with its budget, sorry, Disney, but these are Joker: Folie a Deux numbers…but with very good audience scores.

There is an argument to be made that families will come out Christmas Day for Mufasa, however, per PostTrak, they’re already going at 39% (combined parents and children) to Sonic the Hedgehog 3‘s 34%. Note Disney has posted lower numbers with a legacy prequel/sequel over the Christmas period, that being the 2018 sequel Mary Poppins Returns which did a 3-day of $23.5M off a 5-day of $32.3M (near $50M if you count the week when Christmas fell on the seventh day).

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MIDDAY FRIDAY PM: Fanboys may have sat out last weekend for Lord of the Rings: War of Rohirrim and Kraven the Hunter, but they are back in bulk this weekend for Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which is eyeing a potential franchise best 3-day opening, besting Sonic the Hedgehog 2‘s $72.1M. Currently the Jeff Fowler directed threequel is seeing $26M today for a $70.5M 3-day at 3,761 theaters.

Who knew we’d see the day in recent years when a Paramount tentpole would dwarf a Disney one? Some rivals were expecting a very large gap between Sonic and Mufasa. It wasn’t just a $10M spread.

Disney’s Mufasa isn’t feeling the love tonight with $13.3M for Friday on its way to $35M at 4,100 sites. Disney is depending on overseas where this $200M prequel before P&A is expected to clean up. Still a wealthy marketplace for two family movies, even if Mufasa is coming up way short.

A few things — while fanboys are out, families will head back on Christmas. In addition, Disney has competition from their own fourth weekend of Moana 2 at $14M at 3,600 locations, -47%, after a $3.7M Friday. The sequel will land at $360M by Sunday. It will be a fight for third as Universal’s Wicked is also looking at $14M, -38%, at 3,289 theaters for a running total of $384.4M.

Angel Studios’ Homestead at 1,886 theaters is looking at a 3-day around $5.2M after a $2.8M Friday in 5th place. Movie follows an ex-Green Beret amid chaos who joins prepper compound; love grows, truths arise, and a community unites. Neal McDonough stars in the Ben Smallbone directed western.

PREVIOUS FRIDAY AM: Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 posted $6.5M in previews Thursday night. That’s the official number from Paramount. Disney reports that Mufasa: The Lion King did $3.3M.

Those are the best previews ever for a Sonic the Hedgehog movie, ahead of the previous installment’s $5M Thursday and combined overall preview take of $6.25M. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 opened to $72.1M in 2022, the best so far of the series. Sonic the Hedgehog‘s previews were $3M back in February 2020; that movie opened just before the pandemic to $58M.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is expected to open to $60M, while Mufasa originally was forecast to be north of $50M. Don’t know if Mufasa will get there as its previews aren’t that far from Wonka ($3.5M), which did $39M last year, and 2018’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse ($3.5M, and $35.4M). The Barry Jenkins-directed prequel is booked at 4,100 theaters.

Critics are harder on Mufasa at 57% Rotten, while Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is at 88% fresh. There’s already an audience score for Sonic 3, and it’s a healthy 98%.

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Even if Mufasa comes up short this weekend, Disney is hopeful that business will bounce back from Christmas Day onward. Moviegoing traditionally has exploded on Christmas Day, as holiday distractions cease, and continued strong into New Year’s weekend. That said, this frame historically is the home of the mega Christmas tentpole, i.e. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015), Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) Avatar: The Way of Water (2022). Today Comscore reports that 13% of K-12 students are on break, while 81% colleges are off. This moves to 95% K-12 off on Monday and 94% colleges on break before near-100% levels from Christmas Eve though New Year’s Day.

Here is how the rest of the week went: