‘Now You See Me 3’ Eyes No. 1 Opening $21M+

SUNDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart…There’s plenty of surprise out there for Lionsgate’s No. 1 win with threequel Now You See: Now You Don’t at $21M. Global take is $75.5M, with over $54M from offshore. China is contributing $19.2M. We always told you this movie would make magic abroad.

There was clearly more goodwill out there for this IP than say for a revival of an Arnold Schwarzenegger 1980s sci-fi movie, that is clear as Paramount’s Glen Powell starring, Edgar Wright directed Running Man falls behind on its $20M+ tracking to $17M, maybe even less by tomorrow morning with NFL today. But Running Man‘s stumbling goes beyond IP.

This movie arrived on tracking in the $20M range, and wouldn’t budget up further. Incoming Paramount marketing boss Josh Goldstine, I’m told, tried to change up some thematic elements in the trailer from the initial ridiculousness of the whole world pursuing Powell’s Ben Richards in the first trailer. One decision rival distributors aren’t faulting Paramount for on Running Man is the release date. This mid-November release date is the highly coveted James Bond date. It’s a great place to launch any movie aimed at men. At least there’s the Thanksgiving stretch which can give Running Man a bit of a path.

As was seen all along: Now You See Me 3 had a broader audience than Running Man, in its PG-13 rating, and also with women (who knew the Four Horsemen were more alluring than Powell?). It’s upsets like these at the box office that has heads scratching across town.

The unfortunate takeaways for Running Man: In the wake of Twisters‘ great $81.2M opening, it was figured that Powell when paired with any IP post Top Gun: Maverick could bring ’em in. Running Man clearly shows that you can’t just align the Austin, TX native with any old property. Fifty-five percent of those who bought tickets to Running Man went because ‘It looked fun and exiting’, 40% for the sci-fi genre ahead versus 35% for Powell. The other sad takeaway here is that in a theatrical marketplace starving for new franchises, now the industry has to exercise great caution in rebooting old 1980s IP, read Tron Ares‘ dismal performance, Blade Runner 2049 (which actually misfired on-screen because the marketing got lost in its own Byznantine mythology; the pic did receive an A- CinemaScore), and now Running Man.

The $110M production of Running Man had some co-financing from Domain, which has a slate deal with Paramount.

One rival studio marketing source told me last night that when it came to Now You See Me 3‘s triumph here at the box office, it was obvious: the first two Now You See Me movies ranked in the top 10 during their play on Netflix in the last year. The cast took to social during production to ignite interest. The online campaign engaged franchise fans with clips across TikTok, going on to blend nostalgia and real-world intrigue by leaning into the recent Louvre heist with creator Phoo’s viral recreation (9M+ views). The studio teamed with mega-creator Zach King to giveaway 10,000 movie tickets to the first fans to interact with his post (23M+ views) and pulled off a live stunt for fans featuring Jesse Eisenberg performing a card trick that sparked 23M+ views 

Post Covid, the mid November frame (weekend 46) can sometimes be the weekend prior to Thanksgiving, which is not the case this year. Post Covid, what has shined in this frame has been the second weekend of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($66.4M) in 2022, and Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes ($44.6M opening). The hope of theatrical longevity’s are pinned on next weekend when Universal’s Wicked: For Good is expected to deliver an opening well ahead of last year’s first chapter $112.5M.

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SATURDAY AM: Two franchises, one that’s 12 years old (Now You See Me) and another a reboot of a 38-year old Arnold Schwarzenegger, Stephen King sci-fi movie from hipster filmmaker Edgar Wright (The Running Man) are squaring off this weekend with the former the stronger with an estimated $21M-$24M opening. Lionsgate’s Now You See Me: Now You Don’t is the surprise leader this weekend in a pre-pre-Thanksgiving frame. Friday for Now You See Me 3 is figured at $8.4M. The rainy weather on the west coast can only help business, I’m told.

Really, few saw this coming a few weeks ago on tracking; this magician heist movie expected to clear in the high teens, so the fact that anticipation has ratcheted up in recent days for this threequel; let’s give props to Lionsgate. When it comes to sequels to semi-beloved franchises, absence does make the heart grow fonder, and the last Now You See Me was nine years ago.

Meanwhile, tracking pinned No. 1 with a north of $20M start for Running Man. Momentum slipped in recent days.

That sequel was huge in China back when Hollywood movies made an impact there, grossing $97M. So far, Now You See Me 3 in early China box office has grossed close to $16M. The first movie made $23M there. Lionsgate has further capitalized on the Now You See Me brand: they’re opening a magic stage show at the Sydney Opera House in December before embarking on a global tour.

Now You See Me 3 gets a B+ CinemaScore (previous two movies received A-s), but it has a higher definite recommend than Paramount’s Running Man, 63% to 58%. Women are driving ticket sales to the Ruben Fleischer-directed caper at 54% (versus the R-rated Glen Powell Running Man at 36% female). Definite recommend among women is higher for Now You See Me 3 over Running Man, 68% to 62%. If rain in LA drives folks to cinemas, the upside on Running Man is $18M start (though some believe it’s around $16M) in 2nd place after a $6.5M Friday/preview. The redo gets a B+ CinemaScore, same as the original 1987 movie.

An eyebrow raiser: Now You See Me 3 doesn’t have Imax, rather PLFs which are contributing 20% of the weekend. Even play across the country but better in the South, South Central and Mountain areas. AMC Empire in NYC is the highest location for the Jesse Eisenberg-Woody Harrelson-Isla Fisher-Dave Franco ensemble with close to $30K since Thursday night. Diversity demos are 38% Caucasian, 26% Hispanic and Latino, 16% Asian American and 14% Black. Sixty-six percent are 18-34 with 69% under 35.

You would think the Powell of it all would have stolen all the female moviegoers from Now You See Me 3, but alas no. Running Man leans male at 64% to 36% female, with 46% over 35. Men over 25 make up 47% of the audience, while women over 25 are 27% (33% for NYSM3, 16% men under 25, and 10% women under 25 vs. 21% for NYSM3). Diversity demos are 53% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 13% Black and 7% Asian American.

Imax and PLFs are delivering 46% of Running Man‘s till with an even play across the country and no region over-indexing. AMC Lincoln Square is the pic’s highest grossing venue so far with close to $39K.

Third goes to the second of 20th Century Studios’ Predator: Badlands with a second Friday of $3.5M (-78%) for a $13M-$14M take (-66%) for a running cume on the high end of $67.3M at 3,725 locations. This one was hit harder than expected. Many were expecting word of mouth to carry it. There’s still hope for legs.

Fourth is Paramount’s fourth weekend of Constantin’s Colleen Hoover feature take of Regretting You at 2,709 theaters with $1.1M yesterday and $4M for the weekend, -40%, for a total of $44.9M by EOD Sunday.

NEON’s third Oz Perkins movie Keeper at 1,950 gets a D+ CinemaScore; not good for any movie despite horror averaging between B and C grades. Yesterday was $1.05M including previews for an estimated $2.6M opening. Why is the lowest of all the NEON Perkins movies? When it comes to low-budget genre, many studios aim to spend low in sync with a title’s budget, and this was very low at $6M production cost, $4M global acquisition. Given their low overhead, part of NEON’s business plan is opening movies in the single digit range, read the Sydney Sweeney horror movie Immaculate at a $5.3M start was huge for them given their economics (you can say the same about Bleecker Street post Covid business-wise).

Overall weekend for all titles is currently figured at $75M, +7% from a year ago when Amazon MGM Studios launched the original Dwayne Johnson-Chris Evans holiday action movie Red One to $32.1M.

UPDATED, Friday midday: Lionsgate is looking at its third No. 1 opening of 2025 with the threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, which is pulling a rabbit out of its hat with a $20 million-$24 million start after an estimated $7.5M Friday that includes $2.1M in previews. The pic is booked at 3,403 theaters.

Now You See Me 3 from director Ruben Fleischer has the best reviews and audience reactions so far in the Jesse Eisenberg-Woody Harrelson-Isla Fisher-Dave Franco trilogy at 60% fresh with Rotten Tomatoes critics and 83% with RT audiences.

The social media reach for the threequel across TikTok, YouTube, X, Instagram and Facebook is close to 300 million followers, well ahead of the second installment’s 126.5 million nine years ago (in a completely different social media landscape) and ahead of such crime capers as Sony’s Caught Stealing (134.5M).

RelishMix spotted positive word of mouth ahead of opening: “Nostalgia fires up intent as fans clock the returning vibe and want the caper back on the big screen. You can feel the fist-pump energy in lines like ‘The OG’s are back’ and ‘We’re so back,’ and the Zombieland-style reunion chatter (‘Imagine the Zombieland reunion,’ ‘Magician Avengers let’s go’) reframes this as comfort-food spectacle. Second, the title finally lands as a shareable joke and a tiny masterstroke of brand repair; ‘Finally… they used ‘Now You Don’t’’.” There’s even goodwill for the movie coming out as far away as Taiwan.

The previous opening high (though not No. 1) for Lionsgate this year was it John Wick spinoff Ballerina at $24.5M during the first weekend of June. While not a success on its own for the franchise in the end — $58M stateside and $137.2M worldwide on a $90M+ production cost — the spinoff reportedly drove market value to the library of the Keanu Reeves action IP.

Second this weekend will be a fight between 20th Century Studios’ second weekend of Predator: Badlands and Paramount’s Edgar Wright reboot of The Running Man with Glen Powell, both hovering around $15M apiece. The latter is playing 3,534 theaters and eyeing a $5.5M Friday, while Badlands is seeing $4M in its second Friday at 3,725 sites. No RT score yet for Running Man. If Badlands hits $15M, that’s a 63% decline for a 10-day cume by Sunday of $68.3M. 2004’s Alien vs. Predator is currently the highest-grossing title in the franchise with $80.2M stateside and $177.4M worldwide.

Paramount’s Regretting You continues to hold in the top 5 at 2,709 theaters with $1.1M in its fourth Friday and a fourth frame of $3.8M, -43%, with a running cume of $44.7M.

Fifth goes to Neon’s third Oz Perkins genre movie, the $6M microbudget production The Keeper, with $1M today and $2M-$3M opening. Critics aren’t high on the movie, giving it 59% on Rotten Tomatoes.

PREVIOUSLY, Friday AM: While it may seem too close to call, there’s buzz that Lionsgate’s Now You See Me: Now You Don’t may have the best shot at No. 1 this weekend after collecting $2.1 million in total Thursday previews. At least that was the confidence Thursday night from a handful of sources. Now You See Me 2 did $1.75M in previews back in June 2016.

Paramount’s $110M redo of The Running Man grossed $1.9M across 3,000 theaters during Thursday night shows. Both Now You See Me 3 and Running Man are eyeing $20M+. Critics on Rotten Tomatoes have similar opinions for both titles, though Running Man has the edge, 64% to 59%.

The advantage that Now You See Me 3 has is its PG-13 rating compared with Running Man‘s R. Now You See Me 3 is looking to be both a date night movie while also appealing to families. The previous two movies made anywhere from 67% to 80% of their global box office abroad. Note, Lionsgate is one of the sole motion picture studios that licenses out foreign to fund their productions. Now You See Me 3 cost north of net $90M before P&A.

RELATED: ‘Now You See Me: Now You Don’t’ Review: Gen Z-Driven Third Installment Attempts To Teach Old Magicians New Tricks

Meanwhile, Running Man‘s previews are in line with that of Neon’s The Monkey, which did $1.9M in total previews before a $5.8M Friday and a three-day total of $14M. Running Man‘s previews are well below that of Tron Ares, another 1980s sci-fi series reboot, which saw a $14.4M Friday and a three-day of $33.2M when it bowed last month.

The original Running Man, starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, opened in this same exact mid-November slot in 1987 with a No. 1 take of $8.1M (unadjusted for inflation). The movie finaled at $38.1M domestic and earned a B+ CinemaScore off a reported $27M production cost. The pic continued to hold No. 1 in its second weekend before ceding to Disney/Touchstone’s Three Men and a Baby over the Thanksgiving holiday. Running Man was the 30th highest-grossing movie of 1987 in a year that was led by Beverly Hills Cop ($153.6M), Platoon ($136.7M) and Fatal Attraction ($125.9M). Coming in the wake of summer 1987’s Predator, which at that time was Schwarzenegger’s highest-grossing movie of his career with $60M domestic, Running Man didn’t meet expectations, though its U.S.-Canada take was in line with previous Arnie movies like Commando, Conan the Barbarian and The Terminator.

Nonetheless, keep in mind that it’s a marathon not a sprint for both movies given that Thanksgiving is in two weeks.

20th Century Studios’ No. 1 pic of the week, Predator: Badlands, did an estimated $1.7M yesterday (off 26% from Wednesday) for a first-week tally of $53.2M. The Elle Fanning movie is expected to be down 60% in its second weekend, par for the genre.