What Trump's decision to get involved in spending dispute tells us about the next 4 years

WASHINGTON (AP) — After days of threats and demands, Donald Trump had to show once lawmakers approved a budget deal in the early hours of Saturday, narrowly preventing state agencies from being forced to close before Christmas for lack of funds.

The president-elect was able to get House Republicans to eliminate some spending, but he fell short of his primary goal of raising the debt limit. This showed that, despite his decisive election victory and his frequent promises of retaliation, many members of his party are still willing to openly challenge him.

Trump’s decision to wade into the budget debate a month before his inauguration also showed that he remains more adept at destroying deals than making them, and foreshadowed that his second term will likely be marked by the same infighting, chaos and the game on the edge of the precipice that characterized his first term.

“Stay tuned. Fasten seat belts. Get ready,” said Rep. Steve Womack, R-Ark., a senior budget allocator.

A look at Trump’s agenda shows a cascade of opportunities for similar showdowns in the years to come. The president-elect wants to expand tax cuts he enacted seven years ago, reduce the size of government, raise tariffs on imports and crack down on unauthorized immigrants. Many of those efforts will need approval from Congress.

For many of Trump’s supporters, disruption could be a goal in itself. 37% of those who voted for him this year said they wanted “a complete and total change,” according to AP VoteCast, an extensive survey of more than 120,000 voters. An additional 56% said they wanted “substantial change.”

But the past few days have made clear the difficulty Trump could face in quickly accomplishing his goals, especially given that Republicans have only slim majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Some lawmakers already seem tired of the apparent absence of a unified strategy.

Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-North Dakota, said the budget battle was “a valuable lesson in how to organize.”

The failure of Trump’s demands

The trouble began when top lawmakers released a copy of the bill, known as a continuing resolution, which was needed to ensure the federal government operated through March. It was not the president-elect, but Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and Trump confidant, who first began generating opposition to the law on social media by calling it excessive spending.

Trump eventually joined the battle. He ordered Republicans to cancel the bipartisan deal they had made with Democrats and demanded that they raise the debt limit, the cap on how much the government can borrow, in hopes of preventing that thorny problem from arising once he was in office.

He increased the pressure even after modifying his initial demands. First I wanted to eliminate the debt limit entirely. He then wanted to suspend it until 2027. He then proposed an extension until 2029.

If state agencies were forced to close due to lack of funds, Democratic President Joe Biden would be blamed, Trump insisted.

“All Republicans, and even Democrats, should do what is best for our country and vote ‘FOR’ this bill, TONIGHT!” Trump wrote Thursday, before a vote on a version of the bill. bill that included a higher debt limit.

Instead, 38 Republicans voted against it. It was a surprising snub for Trump, who at times seemed to have no control over his own party.

“Without this, we should never make an agreement,” he wrote on Truth Social, his social network.

If he didn’t get what he wanted, Trump said there should be a government shutdown. He also said his coreligionists would pay the price in the primaries if they refused to move forward, and said that “Republican obstructionists have to be eliminated.” He especially singled out Representative Chip Roy of Texas by name and with insults.

But in the end, lawmakers left out that debt ceiling increase, and a final deal was approved early Saturday.

Musk and other Trump allies tried to present it as a victory because the final law was significantly reduced and left out unpopular elements such as a pay increase for members of Congress. Charlie Kirk, a prominent conservative activist, wrote in X that Trump “is already running Congress before he takes office!”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, said he had been in “constant contact” with Trump, who, he said, was “certainly happy with this outcome.”

If Trump agreed, he did not say so himself.

After days of frequent social media posts, Trump fell silent again on Friday. He did not offer a reaction to the final vote or issue any statement. Instead, he went golfing at his resort in Florida.

Karoline Leavitt, a Trump spokeswoman, said the president-elect helped prevent an original deal “full of Democratic waste and pay raises for members of Congress.”

“In January, President Trump and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will continue this important mission of eliminating Washington waste, one law at a time,” he said. The DOGE is an advisory panel that will be led by Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

More clashes on the horizon

The circus atmosphere of the budget fight was reminiscent of Trump’s first term. Back then, a budget standoff led to a government shutdown when Trump demanded money for his U.S.-Mexico border wall. After 35 days, the longest closing in history, it agreed to a settlement without having obtained the funds it had demanded.

It was a political low point for Trump, and 60% of Americans blamed him for the shutdown, according to a poll conducted by The Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research at the time.

Trump didn’t stop trying to bend Republicans to his will then and he certainly won’t do so now.

Trump is increasing pressure on his own party over his Cabinet picks, pushing Republican senators reluctant to accept some of his most controversial appointments, such as anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whom he chose as health secretary, and the Fox News host Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense.

It seems that next year’s budget debates will definitely further test Trump’s influence in the House of Representatives. Many conservatives see the rapidly growing federal debt as an existential threat to the country that must be addressed. But some Republicans fear a voter backlash if drastic cuts are made to the federal programs Americans depend on.

Concerns about deficit spending could intensify if Trump pushes through costly tax cuts he promised during the campaign, such as eliminating taxes on tips, Social Security and overtime pay.

Trump also intends to extend the tax cuts he enacted in 2017, which are due to end next year. He has called for a further reduction in the US corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, but only for companies that produce in the United States.

Trump has said he will pay for revenue declines with aggressive new tariffs, which economists warn will result in higher prices for consumers.

Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, said reduced government spending will likely remain a chasm between Trump and House Republicans.

“That’s never really been a Trump campaign promise, but it’s a big priority for House Republicans,” he said.

There was no indication the animosity was easing Saturday. Some Republicans blamed House leadership for failing to secure Trump’s “blessing” in the original deal. Democrats portrayed Trump as second fiddle to Musk.

While Trump remained silent, Biden announced that he had signed the budget law into law.

“This agreement represents a compromise, meaning neither side got everything they wanted,” he said. “But he rejects the accelerated path to a tax cut for billionaires that Republicans sought, and ensures that the government can continue operating at full capacity.”